On the Press Release on 2015 China Economic Forecast held on Jan. 23, 2015, Prod. Chen Xikang released “Forecast on China’s 2015 GDP Growth Rate”.
According to Prof. Chen’s report, China will face many uncertainties in its economic growth in 2015. Firstly, in Nov. 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC passed “The Decision of the CCCPC on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform”. In Oct. 2014, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC released “The Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Advancing Rule of Law”. These important decisions and a series of corresponding reform measures will play a major role in promoting the economic development of China, but it is difficult to make accurate judgments of the short-term effect, especially the effect on the 2015 economic development. Secondly, the international economic situation in 2015 and China’s external demand growth rate has great uncertainty.
It is expected that the year-on-year China’s GDP growth rate is about 7.2% in 2015. China’s economic growth will present a low to high tendency in the whole year of 2015. In the first and the second half year of 2015, China’s GDP growth rate will be around 7.1 percent and 7.3 percent respectively.
The growth rate of the primary industry will be 3.9 percent, the secondary industry 7.1 percent and the tertiary industry 8.0 percent, respectively. The consumption, the investment and the net exports will contribute 3.9, 3.1 and 0.2 percentage points to China’s GDP growth respectively and their contribution share of GDP growth are 54.2 percent, 43.1 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.