On the Press Release on 2015 China Economic Forecast held on Jan. 23, 2015, Prod. Yang Xiaoguang released “Forecast on 2015 China’s Prices and Foreign Trade”.
According to Prof. Yang’s report, China’s economic growth will go down further and the aggregate domestic demand will decline too in 2015, but the force pushing up CPI is stronger than the force pulling it down. The CPI for 2015 is expected to rise moderately, its growth rate will be about 1.8%, slightly less than that for 2014. The movement in the CPI in 2015 will be relatively smooth. PPI and PPIRM in 2015 will both decrease about 1.9%, at the nearly same level of that in 2014. This is mainly due to the pressure of international commodity price. The trends of PPI and PPIRM in 2015 will go downward in the first half year and go upward gradually in the second half year.
China’s export and import value is expected to keep steady increase in 2015, with the growth rate of around 6.4% for export and 5.4% for import, leaving the country with an increased trade surplus which is more than that of 2014. A rapid growth of export and import between China to the United States and European Union is expected. The growth rate of China’s export to the United States is up around 6.5% in 2015, and that for import from United States is expected to rise by 8.0% and 6.3% respectively in 2015. Growth rates of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products will maintain steady. The growth rates of mechanical and electrical products are 6.3% and 5.8% for export and import respectively. The growth rates of high-tech products are around 6.8% and 6.9% for export and import respectively. Labor-intensive products will increase slightly in 2015. Growth rates of h, textiles and footwear in 2015 are predicted to be around 7.3%, 6.4% and 7.8% respectively.