On the Press Release on 2015 China Economic Forecast held on Jan. 23, 2015, Prof. Dong Jichang released “2015 China Real Estate Prices Forecast and Outlook on Logistics Industry”.
According to Prof. Dong’s report, since Sept. 2014, the easy credit policy in real estate, reversal of house purchase limit and the cutting of interest rates contributed to increase in housing market demand. Considering various factors, the house prices are expected to keep a slow increase in 2015.
A stable increase in average house prices will occur in 2015, with RMB per square meter, up 1.2%. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 2.2% year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2015. It is expected that the average notional house prices increase 3.0% in the first three quarters of 2015. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 1.2% in the end of 2015.
The average of logistics prosperity index (LPI) is expected to be around 54.7% in 2015. Total added value of logistics industry will reach RMB 3.24 trillion and will be higher than 2014 by 8% according to the comparable prices. The growth rate in 2015 will be lower than that of 2014. Social logistics demand and the market will continue to expand. Total value of social logistics of 2015 is expected to be around RMB 229.8 trillion which is higher than 2014 by 8%. Social logistics efficiency will be gradually improved, while total social logistic cost is expected to reach RMB 10.4 trillion and is higher than 2014 by 9%.