Recently, the paper “Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5 ℃ warming limit” co-written by Associate Professor Hongbo Duan（First author）, Professor Shouyang Wang（Correspondence author）of SEM, UCAS and other 12 researchers was accepted and by Science and published as a research article.
The paper establishes a multi-model comparison framework by integrating well-known comprehensive evaluation models at home and abroad, and for the first time studies China's long-term low-carbon transition path under the temperature control target of Paris Agreement.In the paper, possible near zero emission paths of carbon and non-carbon in the future are proposed on the scale of the whole state and key sectors, the potential contribution of different emission factors are analyzed, the structural evolution of energy system under zero carbon or low-carbon situation is described, the cost of complete decarbonization is estimated, and the potential consistency between 1.5 °C temperature control target and carbon neutralization target is discussed.Through multiple models comparison, the paper finds many important cross-model findings with consistency, and also identifies the main sources of uncertainty, which is of great significance to improve the reliability of China's emission reduction strategy and policy-making, and promote the development of comprehensive evaluation modeling theory.
This research work is funded by the Outstanding Youth Fund Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC), the Basic Science Research Center Project of NSFC, and the General Project of NSFC.
