Press Conference on “2013 China Economic Forecast” of Center for Forecasting Science(CEFS), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) was held at the conference hall of Academy of Mathematics and System Science ,CAS on Jan. 26,2013. Prof. Cheng Siwei, Dean of School of Management, Prof. Wang Shouyang, Executive Dean of School of Management, Prof. Dong Jichang, Vice Dean of School of Management, Prof. Chen Xikang, Prof. Yang Xiaoguang, and Prof. Yang Cuihong, the supervisors of graduate students at the School of Management attended the press conference.
Our Dean, meanwhile, Chairman of Academic Committee of CEFS, Cheng Siwei, made a theme speech at the conference. He expressed his understanding of forecasting science and his hopes for the research of forecasting.
Prof. Cheng Siwei
Then Prof. Chen Xikang, Prof. Yang Xiaoguang, Prof. Yang Cuihong and Prof. Dong Jichang released their forecasting reports one by one.
Prof. Chen Xikang released Forecast on 2013 China’s GDP Growth Rate. According to the report, China’s economy will moderately recover in 2013, and the year-on-year growth rate of China’s GDP is predicated to be around 8.4 percent in 2013, which is 0.6 percent higher than that of 2012. Particularly, it will be 4.7 percent for the growth rate of primary industry. The consumption and the investment will contribute 4.5 and 4.2 percentage points to China’s GDP growth rate respectively, while the net exports will contribute -0.3 percentage point.
Prof. Chen Xilang
Prof. Yang Xiaoguang released Forecast on 2013 China’s Prices, and Forecast on 2013 China’s Foreign Trade. In the scenario that the current policies have little change in 2013, CPI is expected to rise around 3.5 percent, PPI is estimated to rise around 0.9 percent and PPIRM will rise around 0.7 percent. All of the above indices are estimated to be higher than those of 2012, and in particular these values will rise up through the whole year with a relatively fast increase in the early 2013 and then slowing down afterwards. Though China’s CPI is estimated to increase generally in 2013, we cannot rule out the possibility of a large variation of the price levels.
Prof. Yang Xiaoguang
In the context of slow recovery of global and Chinese economy, China’s foreign trade is expected to have minor improvements in 2013, with a roughly balanced growth between imports and exports. The total imports and exports is expected to rise around 8.5 percent, with increasing exports and imports of 8.3 percent and 8.6 percent respectively. Exports to U.S. will remain strong in 2013; exports and imports to U.S. are expected to grow by around 8.5 percent and 9.1 percent respectively, resulting in an increasing surplus to U.S. Exports and imports to E.U. are expected to grow by around 2.3 percent and 3.2 percent in 2013. Exports of mechanical and electrical production and high-tech production will represent robust increase in 2013, but special attentions should be paid to their decreases of import market share in E.U. and U.S. Exports of both mechanical and electrical production and high-tech productions are expected to grow by around 8.4 percent, and their imports are expected to grow by around 7.9 percent and 8.6 percent respectively.
Prof. Yang Cuihong released Forecast on 2013 China’s Grain, Cotton, Oil-bearing Crops Production , 2013 Global Bulk Commodities Prices Forecast, and Outlook on 2013 China’s Energy Demand and Supply. China’s grain sown area is expected to increase slightly in 2013 reaching 111.93 million hectares, which is 663 hectares more than that in 2012. On the condition that there is no extreme weather, the grain output will rise with 7.5 million tons over 2012, which results in an increasing trend of China’s grain output 10 years in a row from 2004. However, if server weather, in particular extensive and long-lasting drought, occurs in late summer and/or autumn of 2013, the grain output will decrease by around 5 million tons. The cotton acreage in 2013 will continue to drop; the sown area of oil-bearing crops will slightly increase in 2013, while the yield will increase if no extreme weather occurred during the growing period.
Prof. Yang Cuihong
With an assumption of stabilized global economic fundamentals, no occurrence of a relatively large scale regional war or extreme climate, it is expected that a slight increase of the commodity futures prices will occur in 2013. Particularly, the CRB commodity index is predicted to fluctuate between 530 and 630. We estimate that the CRB index will rise 4 percent year-on-year in 2013, with an average reaching 586. A minor increase is estimated to occur for the first half of 2013 in commodity prices due to the impact of the U.S. fiscal cliff and the weak global economy. Nevertheless, it will rise evidently with a positive expectation of the global economy and China’s economy in the second half of 2013.
WTI crude oil futures price is expected to fluctuate between 85 and 105 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2013 and the average price will be around 95 U.S. dollars per barrel, which is a little higher than that in last year. LME copper futures price will rise 3.3 percent year-on-year reaching 8200 U.S. dollars per ton. And the prices of CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures will remain at a high level in the first half of 2013, and then drop in the second half of 2013. The average prices of CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures in 2013 will be 800, 700 and 1400 U.S. cents per bushel, or will increase 6 percent, 0 percent and -4 percent year-on-year respectively.
It is expected that a slight increase of China’s power demand will occur in 2013. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and the household will grow steadily, and the electricity consumption of secondary industry will rise slowly. The growth rate of power production will continue rising and the power supply and demand will be balanced basically. The power industry of China will be in the rising phase of the business cycle in 2013. For the coal sector, it will present a low-high growth pattern in 2013. The trough will be reached in the first quarter and the uptrend will start from the second quarter. We hold a positive expectation of the coal supply and demand situation for 2013. For the petroleum sector, the demand is estimated to be insufficient in 2013. With regard to its supply, the magnitude of the output reduction of OPEC as a whole is expected to be small; the crude oil supply will be relatively sufficient and will not drive the international oil price up in a large degree. With the recovery of the Chinese economy, we estimate an overall increase in China’s petroleum sector in 2013, as well as an increase for the import and processing of petroleum.
Prof. Dong Jichang released 2013 China Real Estate Prices Forecast, and Outlook on China’s Logistics Industry 2013. In the scenario that the real estate controlling policy keep stable, it is expected that the average national house prices will be around 6200 Yuan per square meter in 2013, up 7.6 percent from the same period last year. The trend of the average national house prices will present a high-low pattern in 2013. The average national house prices in the first-tier and second-tier cities will keep a stable increase and it will occur a slighter decline in the third-tier and fourth-tier cities. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2013. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 8.3 percent year-on-year in the first and second quarters of 2013. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 8.1 percent in the first three quarters. It is expected that the average national house prices to increase 7.6 percent year-on-year in 2013. In addition to an increasing demand, the area of commercial houses sales is expected to rise. Real estate investment is expected to rise, with a year-on-year decline in the area of land purchase. The growth of the new construction area and the completion area remain at the same level as those in 2012.
Prof. Dong Jichang
An overall increase of China’s logistic industry is expected to occur in 2013. In comparable prices, total value of social logistics is expected to be around 200 trillion Yuan which rises last year by 15.3 percent. Total value added of logistics industry will reach 4 trillion Yuan and increase last year by 13.3 percent. Total social logistic cost is estimated to reach 10.5 billion Yuan, increasing 12.6 percent from last year. In particular, a faster growth rate than that in 2012 will occur in all the above three values, e.g., the total logistic cost growth rate is 1.3 percentage higher than that of 2012.
After the press conference, China Economic Situation Forum 2013 was held. Prof. Wang Shouyang, the executive dean of School of Management, hosted the forum. Three guests were invited to speak at the forum, namely, Wang Tongsan, member of Academic Division of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and famous economist, Zhu Baoliang, director of Economy Forecasting Department of State Information Center and chief economic engineer, and Wang Yin, deputy director of Investigation and Statistics Department of the Bank of China. Together they discussed China’s economic situation in 2013.
Prof Wang Shouyang(top left), Mr. Wang Tongsan(top right), Mr. Zhu Baoliang(bottom left), Mr. Wang Yi(bottom right)
