DUAN Hongbo

          Name: DUAN Hongbo

          Title: Associate Professor

          Tel: 86-10-82680915

          E-mail: hbduan@ucas.ac.cn 

          Research Areas:

             Energy-Economy-Environment(3E) Integrated Modelling

             Climate Policy Analysis

             Energy Technological Diffusion 


Research Focus

Dr. Duan’s research interests focus on energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated modeling, climate policy analysis and energy technological diffusion and marketing. His projects include establishment and development of 3E-integrated model at both global and national levels, analysis of long-term energy demand and CO2 emissions, integrated assessment of China’s climate vulnerability and damages, policy exploration of clean energy technological diffusion, and energy sustainable development.

Dr. Duan is the leading developer of the famous 3E-integrated model, E3METL and CE3METL, which are important members of CEMF model set (China Energy Modeling Forum); He has published over 50 peer-reviewed papers, several of which have been reported by famous international medias, like Advances in Engineering, IAEE newsletter, VerticalNews and Atlas of Science, etc., and one of which enters the 2018 outstanding research list of “Change the World, One Article at a Time” initiated by Springer Nature. He was invited to write a review article on IAM-based multi-model comparison analysis for Environmental Research Letters. His research has been financially supported by many key governmental sectors, such as National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Ministry of Education, Ministry of Science and Technology, Development Research Center (DRC) of State Council, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).



Ph.D., Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013; Main field of research: Energy & Environmental Economics, Dissertation: “Modeling Energy, Economy and Environmental Integrated Systems and Renewables’ Diffusion”

M.S., Kunming University of Science and Technology, 2010; Main field of research: Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) in Mathematics

B.S., Hulun buir University, 2007; Main field of study: Applied Mathematics


Academic Experience

Department of Economics, University of Kansas (KU) (Jan. 2018 to Jan. 2019), Visiting Scholar

Collins College of Business, University of Tulsa (TU) (Nov. 2018), Visiting professor

Center for Energy & Environmental Research (CEEP), Institutes of Science and Development. (2013.7 to present), Research fellow

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) (2017.11 to present), Associate Professor

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) (2016.7 -2017.11), Assistant Professor

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), (2013.7 -2016.7), Affiliated Post Doctorate


Journal Publications

“Artificial selection vs. natural selection: Which causes the Matthew effect of science funding allocation in China”, with Xiao Wang, Gupeng Zhang and Jianing Dong, Science & Public Policy, 2020. (to appear)

“Coronavirus: Limit short-term economic damage”, with Shouyang Wang and Cuihong Yang, Nature, 578: 515-515. http://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00522-6.

“Modeling deep decarbonization-Robust energy policy and climate action”, with Joeri Rogelj, Jason Veysey and Shouyang Wang, Applied Energy, 2020, 262: 114517.

“How does the collaboration with dominant R&D performers impact new R&D employees’ innovation performance in different cultural contexts? A comparative study of American and Chinese large firms”, with Gupeng Zhang and Xiao Wang, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2019, 148: 119728.

“Nonlinear globalization threshold effect of energy intensity convergence in Belt and Road Countries”, with Zhilin  Huang and Hong Zhang, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 230: 117750.

“The global warming-rise target from 2C to 1.5C: The challenge for China”, with Shouyang Wang. Management World, 2019. (to appear)

“Multi-renewable management: Interactions between wind and solar within uncertain technological ecological system”, with Yongqiang Du, Bingjie Song, Tsvetan G. Tsvetanov and Yingying Wu. Energy Conversion and Management, 2019, 187: 232-247.

“Integrated benefit-cost analysis of China’s optimal adaptation and targeted mitigation”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Ecological Economics, 2019, 160: 76-86.

“Review on robust climate economic research: Multi-model comparison analysis”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Environmental Research Letters, 2019, 14(3): 033001.

“Role of policy synergies in achieve China’s IND targets”, with Jianlong Yang, Journal of Environmental Economics, 2018, 2: 11-27.

“Ownership unbundling of natural gas transmission networks in China”, with Jichang Dong, Siying Sha, Xiuting Li and Wei Dai, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 195: 145-153.

“China’s energy and climate targets in the Paris agreement: Integrated assessment and policy options”, with Jianlei Mo, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Economic Research Journal, 2018, 9: 168-181.

“Examining the absolute advantage of energy technology between China and the developed countries”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang, and Qianlong Zhang Energy, 2018, 162: 1223-1233.

“Potential impacts of China’s climate policies on energy security”, with Shouyang Wang, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2018, 71: 94-101.

“Cross-national interaction and learning: A two-dimensional technological diffusion framework”, with Shouyang Wang, Ying Fan, Gupeng Zhang, Journal of Business Research, 2018, 89: 57-66.

“Achieving China’s energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties”, with Jianlei Mo, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Energy Economics, 2018, 70: 45-60.

“The impacts of climate policies on energy security in carbon-restrained China”, with Shouyang Wang, IAEE Energy Forum, 2017, 4: 42-43.

“Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emissions control costs”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018, 23(3): 387-403. doi: 10.1007/s11027-017-9739-y.

“The timing of China’s carbon peaking under an uncertain future”, with Jianlei Mo, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, IAEE Energy Forum, 2017, 1: 49-51.

“Network stability, connectivity and Innovation output”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, 114: 339-349.

“Role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement in global climate change mitigation”, with Gupeng Zhang, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Energy Efficiency, 2017, 10(2): 459-473.

“Impacts of transaction costs on cost-saving effect of carbon trading market in China”, with Lianbiao Cui and Jinhua Xu, Management Review, 2017, 29(6): 23-31.

“Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China”, Environmental Research, 2017, 152: 342-350.

“Regional opportunities for China to go low-carbon: Results from the REEC Model”, with Lei Zhu, Gürkan Kumbaroglu and Ying Fan, The Energy Journal, 2016, 37: 223-252.

“Investigating Determinants of Inter-Regional Technology Transfer in China: A Network Analysis with Provincial Patent Data”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou. Review of Managerial Science, 2016, 10(2): 345-362.

“How will diffusion of PV solar contribute to China’s emission-peaking and climate response?”, with Gupeng Zhang, Lei Zhu, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016, 53: 1076-1085.

“China’s carbon reduction structure: An analysis based on endogenous energy efficiency improvement”, with Gupeng Zhang, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Journal of Management Science in China, 2016, 19(7): 10-23.

“Analysis of cost and technological diffusion of carbon capture and storage for China: Based on Chinese energy economic endogenous technological model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, System Engineering: Theory & Practices, 2015, 35(2): 333-341.

“Modelling the evolutionary paths of multiple carbon-free energy technologies with policy incentives”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2015, 20(1): 55-69.

“CO2 mitigation potential of CCS in China – An evaluation based on an integrated assessment model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 103: 934-947.

“Small worldliness, Chinese culture and firm innovation performance: An empirical study based on patent collaboration data of China”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou, Asia Journal of Technology Innovation, 2015, 23(2): 189-204.

“How do prolific inventors impact firm innovation in ICT: Implications from patent co-inventing network”, with Gupeng Zhang and Xiaofeng Lv, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2014, 26(9): 1091-1110.

“A cross-country study on relationship between diffusion of wind and photovoltaic solar technology”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2014, 83: 156-169.

“Optimal carbon tax pathways in carbon constrained China-A logistic-induced energy economy hybrid model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Energy, 2014, 69: 345-356.

“Review on the integrated assessment model of energy-environment-economy for the global climate change”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of System Engineering, 2014, 29(6): 852-868.

“Modeling for new energy endogenous technological change under action of emission reduction policies”, with Ying Fan, Minglei Liu and Lei Zhu, Journal of System Engineering, 2014, 29(6): 763-770.

“What is the most cost-effective policy of CO2 targeted reduction: an application of aggregated economic technological model with CCS?”, with Ying Fan and Lei Zhu, Applied Energy, 2013, 112: 866-875.

“China’s wind technology development: The diffusion patterns and policy analysis”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of Management Science, 2013, 26(4): 113-120.

“International crude oil market trend analysis and price forecast in 2012”, Qiang Ji, Lei Zhu, Jianlei Mo, Jinhua Xu and Ying Fan, Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2012, 27 (1): 44-49.

“Existence of weak nontrivial homoclinic orbits for second order impulsive differential equations”, with Hui Fang, Boundary Value Problems, 2012 (138), doi: 10.1186/1687-2770-2012-138.

“Existence of weak solutions for second-order boundary value problem of impulsive dynamic equations on time scales”, with Hui Fang, Advances in Difference Equations, 2009. Article ID 907368,16 Pages doi: 10.1155/2009/907368.


Book Chapters

Book chapter: China’s Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition, Chapter 2: “China’s Energy Consumption Revolution”. Beijing: China Development Press, 2019.

Book: Energy System Integrated Modeling: Decarbonization with Policy Driven, Co-edited with Ying Fan, Beijing: Science Press, 2017.

Book: Special Report: Research on low-carbon management and development, Co-edited with Ying Fan and Lei Zhu, in Report on Advances in Management Science and Engineering, Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 2014.

Book chapter: Chapter 15: Evolution of energy technologies with policy incentives, in China Energy Security: A Perspective of Management Science, Beijing: Science Press, 2013.



Keynote Speech “China IAM-based Multi-model Comparison Analysis”, the 6th Annual Conference of China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF), Beijing, Jan. 8, 2020.

Invited Parallel speech “Multi-model Analysis on China’s Challenges Facing 1.5C Warming Limit”, Summit Forum of Energy Strategy and Innovation Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, Dec. 4, 2019.

Invited Parallel speech “Estimating China’s historical climate-economic relationship”, the 2nd Symposium of Environmental Economics and Policy Assessment, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Nov. 19-20, 2019.

Invited session presentation “Non-standard scheme and diffusion of electric vehicles”, 2019 INFORMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, United States, Oct. 20-23, 2019.

Session Chair of “Energy Materials & Technology” and IAAM Scientist Medal Lecture “Uncertain entanglements between photovoltaic and wind technology penetrations”, Stockholm, Sweden, Oct. 9-11, 2019.

Discussant and session presentation “Multi-renewable Interactions: Relationships, equilibrium stabilization and short-term forecasts”, the 24 Annual Meeting of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE), Manchester, UK, Jun. 26-Jun. 29, 2019.

Session Chair of “Energy Market, Technology Innovation and Economy Decarbonization”, 2019 China Conference of the Chinese Economist Society (CES), Dalian, China, Jun. 7-9, 2019.

Invited panelist for the 38th International Energy Workshop (IEW2019), Jun. 3-5, Paris, France, 2019.

Session Chair and oral presentation “How will globalization and financial development contribute to energy consumption reduction”, 2019 International Conference on Energy Finance (ICEF), Kunming, China, May 18-19, 2019.

Panelist and plenary speech “Assessing China’s energy and economic risks under the 2-degree warming-limit target: Multi-model comparison analysis”, International Symposium for Global Climate Integrated Assessment Model, Beijing, China, May 13, 2019.

Invited talk “Potential interactions between proliferation of wind and solar PV within uncertain technology ecological system”, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at Tufts University, Boston, USA, Oct. 2, 2018.

Invited talk “Valuing China’s economic impacts of climate change”. University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA, Sep. 24, 2018.

Entanglements between diffusion of wind and solar within uncertain technology ecological system”, the 2018 United Stated Association for Energy Economics (USAEE/IAEE) North American conference, Washington DC, USA, Sep. 23-26, 2018.

Keynote speech “E3METL: attempts to bridge top-down and bottom-up modeling framework”, Annual meeting of China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF), Beijing, Nov. 11-12, 2017.

The potential relationships between China’s climate policies and energy security”, 2017 Research Links: Workshop on emission control and sustainable energy in green port development, Dalian, China, Aug. 26-28, 2017.

Policy effectiveness assessment of China’s optimal adaptation and targeted mitigation”. The 36th IEW International Meeting, College Park, Maryland, USA, Jul. 12-14, 2017.

The timing of China’s carbon peaking under an uncertain future”. The 1st IAEE Eurasian Conference, Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug 27-31, 2016.

Session Chair and presentation “Mitigation and adaptation: Climate damage risk in China”. The 2nd IEEE Symposium on Analytics and Risk, Beijing, China, July 8-9, 2016.

Keynote speech: “Cooperativity for reaching China’s carbon-peaking and non-fossil energy development targets”. The 2st Energy Environment & Modeling Frontier Forum, Nanjing, China, May 13-14, 2016.

Quantifying China’s warming benefit of substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity in mitigating climate change”. IEEE Symposium on Analytics and Risk, Beijing, China, Aug 14-15, 2015.

Staff for the 4th IAEE Asia Conference, and with oral presentation “How will emissions trading scheme affect the China’s long-term evolution of carbon-free technologies?” Beijing, China, Sep 19-21, 2014.

The role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement (EEEI) in climate change abatement”. The IEW2014 International meeting, Beijing, China, Jun 4-6, 2014.

Staff for “Theoretical advances and empirical lessons on emission trading schemes”. Beijing, China, Oct 10-11, 2013.

Optimal carbon taxes in carbon constrained China-a hybrid energy economy environmental model.” The 36th IAEE International Conference, Daegu, Korea, Jun 16-20, 2013.

What’s the most cost-effective policy of CO2 targeted reduction?” The 4th ICAE Annual Meeting, Suzhou, China, Jul 5-8, 2012.

How Policies Stimulate the Evolution of Carbon-free Energy Technologies?INFORMS International Meeting, Beijing, China, Jun 24-27, 2012.


Professional Services

—Invited Referee for Nature, Nature Climate Change, Energy Journal, Energy Economics, Energy Policy, Computers & Industrial Engineering, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Energy Conversion & Management, Applied Energy, China Economic Review, Environmental Research, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Frontiers for Energy Research, Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Energy, Environmental Research Letters, Technovation, Sustainability, Energies, Journal of International Economics, Resources Policy, Science of the Total Environment, Journal of International Economics, Production & Operations Management, Regional Environmental Change, Global Food Security, Journal of Cleaner Production, Environmental & Resource Economics, Energy Informatics, International Journal of Revenue Management, PNAS, International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, Journal of Environmental Management, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier Science & Technology Books, and many Chinese leading journals.

—Associate editor of International Journal of Revenue Management

—Managing guest editor of Applied Energy.

—Managing guest editor of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

—Managing guest editor of Regional Environmental Change.

—Guest editor of Energy Economics.

—Editorial board members of many other journals, like Energy Informatics, Sustainable Futures, JENR.

—Advisory board member of Cambridge Scholar Publishing Book Series: Economics.

—Member of Scientific Advisory Board for IAAM.

—Member of IAEE, EAERE and INFORMS.